I read the Rhodium report (thanks for the link), but could not see how they arrived at the view that GDP growth was 1.5% for 2023. I understand IMF estimate for China’s GDP is in line with China’s government. So should we prefer Rhodium’s estimate to the IMF-cum-official estimate?
Perhaps I missed the explanation, but if you understood the explanation for Rhodium’s estimate, perhaps you can explain in a future post?
Rhodium Group on China’s GDP and economy Great analysis?
Rhodium is yet another bs Western 'analyst'. Usually more wrong than right – and skewed towards Western interpretations of events.
The only reliable Chinese predictions and stats comes from the relevant ministries in Beijing. The rest is Mastercard.
Check Beijing's prediction/outcome record against any other on the Planet. It's not even close.
I live two hours from the Chinese border and visit regularly to verify their claims. Not only have I never found discrepancy between prediction and progress, but they often make progress further than predicted. And the people really are the happiest on earth.
96% of them think their country's headed in the right direction. Ninety-six fucking percent!
Hence 'predictions' like these:
1990. China's economy has come to a halt. The Economist
1996. China's economy will face a hard landing. The Economist
1998. China's economy’s dangerous period of sluggish growth. The Economist
1999. Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. Bank of Canada
2000. China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. Chicago Tribune
2001. A hard landing in China. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas
2002. China Seeks a Soft Economic Landing. Westchester University
2003. Banking crisis imperils China. New York Times
2004. The great fall of China? The Economist
2005. The Risk of a Hard Landing in China. Nouriel Roubini
2006. Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? International Economy
2007. Can China avoid a hard landing? TIME
2008. Hard Landing In China? Forbes
2009. China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. Fortune
2010: Hard landing coming in China. Nouriel Roubini
2011: Chinese Hard Landing Closer Than You Think. Business Insider
2012: Economic News from China: Hard Landing. American Interest
2013: A Hard Landing In China. Zero Hedge
2014. A hard landing in China. CNBC
2015. Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing. Forbes
2016. Hard landing looms for China. The Economist
2017. Is China's Economy Going To Crash? National Interest
2018. China's Coming Financial Meltdown. The Daily Reckoning.
2019 China's Economic Slowdown: How worried should we be? BBC2020. Coronavirus Could End China's Decades-Long Economic Growth Streak. NY Times
2021 Chinese economy risks deeper slowdown than markets realize. Bloomberg
2022. China Surprise Data Could Spell R-e-c-e-s-s-i-o-n. Bloomberg.
2023. No word should be off-limits to describe China's faltering economy. Bloomberg
I read the Rhodium report (thanks for the link), but could not see how they arrived at the view that GDP growth was 1.5% for 2023. I understand IMF estimate for China’s GDP is in line with China’s government. So should we prefer Rhodium’s estimate to the IMF-cum-official estimate?
Perhaps I missed the explanation, but if you understood the explanation for Rhodium’s estimate, perhaps you can explain in a future post?
Rhodium Group on China’s GDP and economy Great analysis?
Rhodium is yet another bs Western 'analyst'. Usually more wrong than right – and skewed towards Western interpretations of events.
The only reliable Chinese predictions and stats comes from the relevant ministries in Beijing. The rest is Mastercard.
Check Beijing's prediction/outcome record against any other on the Planet. It's not even close.
I live two hours from the Chinese border and visit regularly to verify their claims. Not only have I never found discrepancy between prediction and progress, but they often make progress further than predicted. And the people really are the happiest on earth.
96% of them think their country's headed in the right direction. Ninety-six fucking percent!
Hence 'predictions' like these:
1990. China's economy has come to a halt. The Economist
1996. China's economy will face a hard landing. The Economist
1998. China's economy’s dangerous period of sluggish growth. The Economist
1999. Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. Bank of Canada
2000. China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. Chicago Tribune
2001. A hard landing in China. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas
2002. China Seeks a Soft Economic Landing. Westchester University
2003. Banking crisis imperils China. New York Times
2004. The great fall of China? The Economist
2005. The Risk of a Hard Landing in China. Nouriel Roubini
2006. Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? International Economy
2007. Can China avoid a hard landing? TIME
2008. Hard Landing In China? Forbes
2009. China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. Fortune
2010: Hard landing coming in China. Nouriel Roubini
2011: Chinese Hard Landing Closer Than You Think. Business Insider
2012: Economic News from China: Hard Landing. American Interest
2013: A Hard Landing In China. Zero Hedge
2014. A hard landing in China. CNBC
2015. Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing. Forbes
2016. Hard landing looms for China. The Economist
2017. Is China's Economy Going To Crash? National Interest
2018. China's Coming Financial Meltdown. The Daily Reckoning.
2019 China's Economic Slowdown: How worried should we be? BBC2020. Coronavirus Could End China's Decades-Long Economic Growth Streak. NY Times
2021 Chinese economy risks deeper slowdown than markets realize. Bloomberg
2022. China Surprise Data Could Spell R-e-c-e-s-s-i-o-n. Bloomberg.
2023. No word should be off-limits to describe China's faltering economy. Bloomberg