Charts This Week #4
Charts and links about China
At the end of this edition we share some charts from JPMAM’s newest energy paper. Well worth your time.
Charts This Week #4
De minimis provision shipments surging
So far in 2024, 485 million packages have entered US, nearing 50% of all of 2023's number and we're not halfway through the fiscal year (ends September 30th). Annualized, this amount would be +16-20% above 2023's fiscal year assuming no growth in remainder of fiscal year.
So far in fiscal year 2024, at least 485 million packages have entered the U.S. under the provision, according to data provided to The Wall Street Journal by Rep. Mike Gallagher, a Wisconsin Republican who chairs the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. - Wall Street Journal1
China Post ePacket Rates still cheaper
The concern about de minimis provision reminds us of the China Post ePacket e邮宝 (loophole?) where China-based shippers were able to send lower weight packages to the US **CHEAPER** than US-based domestic shippers. The rules were changed back in 2020/2021 and a graduated increase in ePacket shipping costs was implemented through 2025. Let’s see how they stack up today.
It turns out, China Post ePacket is still cheaper than USPS ground for packages under 2.5 lbs. We used zip codes in Washington and Florida to calculate the Ground Advantage prices on USPS website. This comparison uses the current rate of 7.2 CNY to USD. Note: if CNY devalues, the China Post ePacket rates go down in dollar terms, at 7.5 both 2lbs and 2.5lbs ePacket are cheaper.
Below is the data table with Priority Mail (2 day shipping) added as comparison.